Dalam minggu ini kemungkinan GBP/JPY akan bullish sampai dengan 139.22
jenuh chart menandakan dan beberapa indikator memperkuat menurut tehnikal analisis.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 204.97; (P) 206.06; (R1) 207.29; More

GBP/JPY strengthens mildly today but after all is till bounded inside established range of 203.35 and 208.99. Choppy consolidation is probably still underway. On the upside, break of 208.99 will confirm that rise from 198.07 has resumed for 210.56/211.22 resistance zone (100% projection of 192.60 to 205.09 from 198.07 at 210.56 and 38.2% retracement of 241.35 to 192.60 at 211.22). Otherwise, further consolidation could still be seen with risk of another fall to below 203.35 before completion.

In the bigger picture, while fall from 241.35 has completed at 192.60, there is no confirmation of the completion of whole down trend from 251.09 yet. Focus is now on the structure of the current rise from 192.60 as well as 219.32 medium term support turned resistance. Though, a break of 198.07 support is now needed to shift short term bias back to the downside for retesting 192.60 low. Otherwise, further upside is still in favor, at least in short term.

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GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 205.91; (P) 206.76; (R1) 208.14; More

GBP/JPY edges further higher to 208.60 today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 206.29 minor support holds. Break of 208.99 resistance will confirm whole rebound from 192.60 has resumed. As discussed before, sustained trading above the short term falling channel resistance confirms that decline from 241.35 has already completed at 192.60. Further rally is expected to 210.56/211.22 resistance zone (100% projection of 192.60 to 205.09 from 198.07 at 210.56 and 38.2% retracement of 241.35 to 192.60 at 211.22). On the downside, though, below 206.29 minor support will argue that there should be one more fall to below 203.35 before completing the consolidation from 208.99 and rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, while, fall from 241.35 has completed at 192.60, there is no confirmation of the completion of whole down trend from 251.09 yet. Focus is now on the structure of the current rise from 192.60 as well as 219.32 medium term support turned resistance. Though, a break of 198.07 is now needed to shift short term bias back to the downside for retesting 192.60 low. Otherwise, further upside is still in favor, at least in short term.

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The week ahead offers a barrage of economic news for currency traders to digest, with the key highlights coming from the US. Markets will focus closely on the FOMC monetary policy decision on Wednesday afternoon. We expect the Fed to ease policy by 25-basis points to 2.0%, and maintain a downbeat outlook on the economy similar to its previous statement. Nonetheless, we anticipate the Fed to leave policy unchanged for the remainder of the year after this week¡¯s rate cut given the aggressive easing that has already materialized.

In addition to the highly anticipated US jobs report on Friday, the calendar also consists of April consumer confidence, US Q1 advanced GDP, PCE, Chicago PMI, March consumption, personal income, durable goods orders, and factory orders. The April unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.2%, while non-farm payrolls are not expected to improve, posting another 80k loss of jobs. The Q1 advanced reading for GDP is seen slowing to 0.2% from 0.6% previously, the PCE index is expected to ease to 3.7% from 3.9% in the previous quarter.

The greenback rallied to its highest levels in two-weeks against the yen at 104.79 and euro at 1.5590. While it remains to be seen whether the recent dollar rebound will be sustainable, Eurozone officials have become more outspoken about their unease over the euro¡¯s strength. ECB President Trichet said ¡°there have been at times sharp fluctuations between major currencies¡± and expressed concern about the ¡°possible implications on economic and financial stability¡±.

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Aussie Spikes on Inflation by Korman Tam

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The greenback recovered against the euro following recent sessions at record lows near the 1.60-level, but plunged to a fresh 24-year low versus the Australian dollar at 0.9540. Amid a dearth of US economic reports, traders focused on global central banks’ policy outlooks.

The US economic calendar picks up in the Thursday session with the release of March durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims and March new home sales. The headline durable goods orders report is seen flat in March, versus a 1.1% drop in February. The ex-transports durable goods orders are expected to improve to 0.4%, reversing the 2.4% decline a month earlier. Weekly jobless claims are largely unchanged, up slightly to 375k from 372k in the prior week. Meanwhile, March new home sales are expected to slip to 580k, versus 590k from February.

The euro eased off its all-time highs above the 1.60-level following comments from Luxemburg Finance Minister Juncker, who expressed unease about the euro’s strength and its potential to be detrimental to Eurozone growth. However, Germany’s Economy Minister Glos offered a contrasting view, saying “Germany’s economy is coping well so far” and was not hurt by the strengthening euro.

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Euro Climbs on Hawkish ECB by Korman Tam

The greenback came under renewed selling against the euro, falling to 1.5946, just shy of its all-time lows at 1.5978. Amid a dearth of economic data at the start of the week, markets focused on comments from central bank officials. Hawkish commentary from ECB officials highlighted the differences in policy stances between the ECB, the FOMC and BoE, with the Eurozone economy exhibiting greater resilience to the global economic downturn.

The economic calendar picks up on Tuesday, with the Bank of Canada scheduled to announce its policy decision at 9:00 AM and is seen cutting interest rates by 50-basis points to 3%. Meanwhile, US reports slated for release will see March existing home sales and the April Richmond Fed survey. Existing home sales in March are expected to decline to 4.92 million units, down from February at 5.03 million units.

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Euro Buoyed on Hawkish Comments

A barrage of ECB officials reiterated the Bank’s tightening bias in policy, with the comments echoing a similar tone on inflation. ECB Bank President Trichet said that anchoring inflation expectations was the governing council’s top priority. He added that future risks to banks mainly relate to adverse credit cycle developments and disorderly unwinding of global imbalances. The ECB’s Weber said that Eurozone inflation was well about the Bank’s tolerance threshold and will assess in the coming weeks whether current interest rates are still appropriate. He said the ECB would actively and decisively combat risk of widespread second-round effects and that decisive action on price stability is seen as the best contribution to helping growth. Further, he added there are strong upward risks to prices in the medium-term. Meanwhile, Governing Council member Noyer said that inflation needed to be brought down as soon as possible and Papademos added that there should be no doubt of the Bank’s primary objective.

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Euro Rallies Shy of $1.60 by Korman Tam

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The dollar struggled against the euro, falling to a new all-time low just shy of the psychologically key 1.60-level at 1.5982. Despite jawboning from a Eurozone official, the greenback came under renewed pressure following the release of a sharply weaker than expected Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.

The reports from the US largely reaffirmed the gloomy outlook looming over the economy. Weekly jobless claims edged higher to 372k, versus 357k the prior week. The March leading indicators index reversed a 0.3% decline in February, improving to 0.1%. The key highlight though, was a disappointing Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey, which deteriorated by more than anticipated at minus 24.9 versus calls for an improvement to minus 15 from minus 17.4 in February – its lowest level since February 2001. The employment index also worsened, falling to minus 11.1 from minus 4.7, levels not seen since 2003.

Fed speakers offered a gloomy assessment of the economy, with San Francisco Fed President Yellen said the outlook was unusually uncertain and “growth has slowed to a crawl at best”. Further, Yellen said she could not rule out the possibility of a recession. Philadelphia Fed President Plosser echoed a similar sentiment, saying that while the economy may not be in recession, it certainly “feels pretty bad”. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Mishkin said that the FOMC still has room to lower the Fed Funds rate as need

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